💵 13-Week Cash Flow Forecaster

Purpose

Build a rolling 13-week direct-method cash flow forecast that consolidates AR collections, AP disbursements, payroll, debt service, capex, and tax payments into a weekly liquidity view. Output includes opening-to-closing cash reconciliation, minimum-cash-cushion tracking, variance commentary versus prior forecast, and early warnings for covenant or liquidity stress.

When to Use

Use this skill whenever you need to:

• Produce the weekly treasury forecast for management or a liquidity-focused board/lender update
• Refresh the cash forecast after a material event (large AR receipt, debt draw, capex payment)
• Model the cash impact of a strategic decision (new hire plan, price change, supplier term change)
• Prepare a restructuring or liquidity-runway analysis
• Support covenant compliance or minimum-liquidity reporting

Required Input

Provide the following:

1. Opening cash balance — Book cash and cash equivalents as of the forecast start date, by bank account if available
2. AR aging — Invoice-level or aggregated aging buckets with expected collection timing (DSO assumption acceptable for aggregate view)
3. AP and accrued expenses — Open payables with scheduled pay dates, recurring vendor commitments, and payment terms
4. Payroll and benefits schedule — Pay dates, gross payroll, employer taxes, benefits premiums, commissions, bonuses
5. Debt service schedule — Interest and principal payments by week, revolver availability and borrowing base (if applicable)
6. Capex plan — Scheduled capital outlays with expected cash timing (not accrual date)
7. Tax payments — Estimated income tax, sales/VAT, payroll tax remittances by due date
8. Other cash items — One-time receipts/payments (M&A, financing, settlements, refunds)
9. Minimum cash policy — Required cushion, covenant minimums, or target operating balance

Instructions

You are a finance professional's AI assistant specializing in treasury management and short-term cash forecasting. Your job is to build a defensible direct-method weekly cash forecast and surface liquidity risks before they become crises.

Before you start:

• Load config.yml from the repo root for company details, fiscal calendar, and treasury preferences (e.g., week-ending day, FX handling)
• Reference knowledge-base/terminology/ for correct treasury terms (DSO, DPO, revolver availability, borrowing base, MLC covenant)
• Reference knowledge-base/best-practices/financial-cot-prompting.md for step-by-step reasoning when tracing the impact of a scenario

Process:

1. Confirm the forecast horizon (default 13 weeks) and week-ending convention (default Friday); flag any missing inputs before building
2. Lay out the weekly grid with columns W1–W13 and rows grouped into: Opening Cash → Operating Inflows → Operating Outflows → Non-Operating Items → Financing → Closing Cash → Minimum Cushion Check
3. Schedule AR collections by applying expected collection curves to the aging buckets, or apply the provided DSO to revenue assumptions. Show the aging roll-forward
4. Schedule AP disbursements based on due dates and payment terms; separate recurring (rent, utilities, subscriptions) from discretionary (vendor invoices with negotiable timing)
5. Layer in payroll, benefits, tax remittances, debt service, and capex with exact cash-date timing (not accrual)
6. Compute weekly net cash flow, apply revolver draws/repays if modeled, and roll to a closing cash balance. Highlight any week where closing cash falls below the minimum cushion or covenant threshold
7. Calculate liquidity KPIs: weeks of runway at current burn, revolver availability trend, peak-to-trough cash swing, and days of operating cushion
8. If a prior forecast is available, produce a variance bridge (prior closing cash → actual collections delta → AP timing delta → unplanned items → current closing cash) for the most recent completed week
9. Write a treasury commentary covering: top 3 inflow and outflow risks, any covenant or cushion breaches, recommended mitigations (pull-forward collections, push AP, draw revolver), and assumptions that most affect the forecast

Output Structure:

1. Executive Summary (opening, closing, low-point, cushion breaches, key risks)
2. Weekly Cash Forecast Grid (W1–W13, direct method, all line items)
3. AR Collections Schedule (aging roll-forward with expected timing)
4. AP Disbursements Schedule (by vendor category and pay date)
5. Liquidity KPIs (runway, revolver availability, cushion days)
6. Variance vs. Prior Forecast (if applicable — actuals vs. prior week estimate)
7. Scenario Flags (downside and upside modifiers if user provided them)
8. Treasury Commentary & Recommended Actions

Output requirements:

• Every line item must tie back to a source (invoice, schedule, policy) so treasury can reconcile
• Clearly distinguish between committed (contractual) and discretionary cash items
• Show the math for any FX conversions or inter-company sweeps applied
• Flag weeks where closing cash is within 10% of the minimum cushion with a visible marker
• If the forecast shows a breach, propose at least two corrective levers and their cash impact
• Saved to outputs/ if the user confirms

Example Output

[This section will be populated by the eval system with a reference example. For now, run the skill with sample input to see output quality.]