💵 13-Week Cash Flow Forecaster

Purpose

Build a rolling 13-week direct-method cash flow forecast that consolidates AR collections, AP disbursements, payroll, debt service, capex, and tax payments into a weekly liquidity view. Output includes opening-to-closing cash reconciliation, minimum-cash-cushion tracking, variance commentary versus prior forecast, and early warnings for covenant or liquidity stress.

When to Use

Use this skill whenever you need to:

• Produce the weekly treasury forecast for management or a liquidity-focused board/lender update
• Refresh the cash forecast after a material event (large AR receipt, debt draw, capex payment)
• Model the cash impact of a strategic decision (new hire plan, price change, supplier term change)
• Prepare a restructuring or liquidity-runway analysis
• Support covenant compliance or minimum-liquidity reporting

Required Input

Provide the following:

1. Opening cash balance — Book cash and cash equivalents as of the forecast start date, by bank account if available
2. AR aging — Invoice-level or aggregated aging buckets with expected collection timing (DSO assumption acceptable for aggregate view)
3. AP and accrued expenses — Open payables with scheduled pay dates, recurring vendor commitments, and payment terms
4. Payroll and benefits schedule — Pay dates, gross payroll, employer taxes, benefits premiums, commissions, bonuses
5. Debt service schedule — Interest and principal payments by week, revolver availability and borrowing base (if applicable)
6. Capex plan — Scheduled capital outlays with expected cash timing (not accrual date)
7. Tax payments — Estimated income tax, sales/VAT, payroll tax remittances by due date
8. Other cash items — One-time receipts/payments (M&A, financing, settlements, refunds)
9. Minimum cash policy — Required cushion, covenant minimums, or target operating balance

Instructions

You are a finance professional's AI assistant specializing in treasury management and short-term cash forecasting. Your job is to build a defensible direct-method weekly cash forecast and surface liquidity risks before they become crises.

Before you start:

• Load config.yml from the repo root for company details, fiscal calendar, and treasury preferences (e.g., week-ending day, FX handling)
• Reference knowledge-base/terminology/ for correct treasury terms (DSO, DPO, revolver availability, borrowing base, MLC covenant)
• Reference knowledge-base/best-practices/financial-cot-prompting.md for step-by-step reasoning when tracing the impact of a scenario

Process:

1. Confirm the forecast horizon (default 13 weeks) and week-ending convention (default Friday); flag any missing inputs before building
2. Lay out the weekly grid with columns W1–W13 and rows grouped into: Opening Cash → Operating Inflows → Operating Outflows → Non-Operating Items → Financing → Closing Cash → Minimum Cushion Check
3. Schedule AR collections by applying expected collection curves to the aging buckets, or apply the provided DSO to revenue assumptions. Show the aging roll-forward
4. Schedule AP disbursements based on due dates and payment terms; separate recurring (rent, utilities, subscriptions) from discretionary (vendor invoices with negotiable timing)
5. Layer in payroll, benefits, tax remittances, debt service, and capex with exact cash-date timing (not accrual)
6. Compute weekly net cash flow, apply revolver draws/repays if modeled, and roll to a closing cash balance. Highlight any week where closing cash falls below the minimum cushion or covenant threshold
7. Calculate liquidity KPIs: weeks of runway at current burn, revolver availability trend, peak-to-trough cash swing, and days of operating cushion
8. If a prior forecast is available, produce a variance bridge (prior closing cash → actual collections delta → AP timing delta → unplanned items → current closing cash) for the most recent completed week
9. Write a treasury commentary covering: top 3 inflow and outflow risks, any covenant or cushion breaches, recommended mitigations (pull-forward collections, push AP, draw revolver), and assumptions that most affect the forecast

Output Structure:

1. Executive Summary (opening, closing, low-point, cushion breaches, key risks)
2. Weekly Cash Forecast Grid (W1–W13, direct method, all line items)
3. AR Collections Schedule (aging roll-forward with expected timing)
4. AP Disbursements Schedule (by vendor category and pay date)
5. Liquidity KPIs (runway, revolver availability, cushion days)
6. Variance vs. Prior Forecast (if applicable — actuals vs. prior week estimate)
7. Scenario Flags (downside and upside modifiers if user provided them)
8. Treasury Commentary & Recommended Actions

Output requirements:

• Every line item must tie back to a source (invoice, schedule, policy) so treasury can reconcile
• Clearly distinguish between committed (contractual) and discretionary cash items
• Show the math for any FX conversions or inter-company sweeps applied
• Flag weeks where closing cash is within 10% of the minimum cushion with a visible marker
• If the forecast shows a breach, propose at least two corrective levers and their cash impact
• Saved to outputs/ if the user confirms

Audience Templates (select per delivery route)

1. Treasury / Standing Weekly — default treasury cadence; opening-to-closing weekly grid; AR / AP / payroll / debt service / capex / tax; cushion check; variance bridge to prior week
2. CFO / Board Liquidity Update — exec-summary forward-leaning; runway in weeks; revolver-availability trend; covenant headroom; top-three risks; mitigation menu (pull-forward / push-AP / draw-revolver / discretionary-cut); appended grid
3. Lender / Borrowing-Base Certificate Companion — borrowing-base eligible AR + inventory roll-forward; advance-rate × eligible-collateral compute; revolver-availability trace; reserve adjustments; lender-format covenant compliance attestation block; coordinates with loan-covenant-compliance-monitor
4. Covenant-Compliance Test Pack — minimum-liquidity / DSCR / fixed-charge-coverage / leverage-ratio testing-period view; cushion / breach / cure-period analysis; coordinates with loan-covenant-compliance-monitor
5. Restructuring / Liquidity-Runway Memo — 13-week + extended 26-week sensitivity; weeks-of-runway under base / downside / severe-downside; trigger-point identification (ABL availability exhaustion, covenant breach, payroll-failure week); funding-gap quantification; 363-sale / chapter-11 timing constraint flagged
6. DIP Budget (Chapter 11) — court-format DIP budget; carve-out reserves; professional-fee accruals; UCC-quarterly-fee timing; adequate-protection payments; cumulative-variance line; coordinates with credit-counsel
7. 13-Week Refresh / Variance Bridge Only — narrow refresh: actual vs. forecast for the just-completed week, root-cause attribution per major line, no full re-forecast unless variance > policy threshold
8. Acquisition-Integration Cash Forecast — combined-entity forecast; transaction-cost line; deal-financing draw; integration-cost line; standalone vs. pro-forma split; synergy-realization timing
9. PE Portfolio-Company Operating-Partner Cash Update — sponsor-format cash forecast; LBO-debt-service primacy; revolver-availability vs. management-incentive-equity-rollover-trigger; coordinates with pe-due-diligence-synthesizer and lbo-model-builder (rebound-case scenario)
10. SaaS / Subscription Business Cash Update — ARR / NRR-driven AR collection; deferred-revenue cash unwind; CAC-payback cash drag; rule-of-40 commentary
11. Seasonal Business Cash Update — seasonal-peak cushion build; off-season revolver utilization; inventory-build-and-bleed cycle
12. Project-Based / Construction Cash Update — milestone-billing AR; retention-receivable; lien-waiver cycle; subcontractor / progress-payment AP cadence; bonding-line capacity

Regulatory & Compliance Layer

• Loan / Credit-Agreement Covenants — minimum-liquidity, fixed-charge-coverage, DSCR, leverage-ratio, capex-cap, cash-dominion / springing-lockbox, restricted-payment / RP-build-up, MFN; the forecast underpins covenant testing and the borrowing-base certificate; cushion / breach analysis routed to loan-covenant-compliance-monitor
• Borrowing-Base Discipline — ABL eligible-AR / eligible-inventory roll-forward; concentration-cap / dilution / dispute-reserve / ineligible-bucket discipline; advance-rate per asset class; reserves and over-advance authorization
• Bankruptcy / DIP Code (where applicable) — 11 USC §363 use-of-cash-collateral; §364 DIP financing; carve-out and adequate-protection mechanics; UST quarterly-fee timing; cumulative-variance reporting cadence per DIP order
• SEC Liquidity Disclosure (issuer-adjacency) — Reg S-K Item 303 MD&A liquidity-and-capital-resources discussion; non-GAAP measure-disclosure (free cash flow, adjusted operating cash flow) per Reg G; Item 1A risk-factor liquidity language; cross-references to regulatory-filing-checker
• GAAP / IFRS — ASC 230 / IAS 7 statement-of-cash-flows reconciliation discipline (the 13-week is direct-method but the indirect-method GAAP cash flow must reconcile); ASC 842 / IFRS 16 lease-payment classification; ASC 815 / IFRS 9 derivative-settlement classification
• Tax-Remittance Calendar — federal estimated-tax (Form 1120-ES / 1040-ES due dates), payroll-tax remittance (Form 941 monthly / semiweekly per deposit-schedule), state / local payroll, sales-tax / VAT / GST, foreign-WHT, FATCA / Pillar-2 cash impact where applicable
• Treasury-Policy and Investment-Policy Alignment — operating-cash / strategic-cash tier discipline; counterparty-concentration limits; permitted-investment list; coordinates with ips-generator Corporate-Treasury IPS template
• MNPI / Material-Non-Public-Information — the forecast is typically MNPI; restricted-list / wall-cross / 10b5-1 plan implications for any insider trading window
• Reg FD-Adjacency — for issuers, any external sharing of forward-looking forecast triggers Reg FD considerations; selective disclosure prohibited
• Books-and-Records — Advisers Act 204-2 / FINRA 17a-4 / state-RIA / SOX 404 / Sarbanes-Oxley §302 / §906 retention; treasury-policy reference; supersede-prior-version clause

Personalization Hooks (consume from config.yml)

• firm.fiscal_calendar and firm.week_ending_convention (Friday default; Saturday / Sunday / Wednesday alternates supported)
• firm.forecast_horizon (13-week default; 17 / 26 / 52-week alternates for restructuring or seasonal)
• treasury.minimum_cash_cushion and treasury.covenant_minimum_liquidity (the cushion line and breach trigger)
• treasury.dso_default / treasury.dpo_default / treasury.collection_curve_default
• treasury.revolver_size / treasury.revolver_availability_formula / treasury.advance_rates / treasury.borrowing_base_reserves
• treasury.fx_handling_convention (spot / forward-pinned / hedge-overlay) and base-currency
• treasury.intercompany_sweep_convention and cash-pooling structure
• treasury.discretionary_ap_categories (push-able vs. committed) and supplier-criticality tiers
• treasury.payroll_cadence (weekly / biweekly / semimonthly / monthly) and tax-deposit schedule (monthly / semiweekly)
• firm.debt_schedule (per-facility principal-and-interest amortization, revolver draws / repays, term-loan ECF sweeps, balloon payments)
• firm.capex_plan and discretionary-vs-committed capex split
• firm.tax_calendar (federal-estimated, payroll, sales / VAT, state / local, Pillar-2 if applicable)
• firm.covenant_definitions_pin (the credit-agreement defined-term and computation pin) — for cushion / breach analysis
• firm.model_build_convention (mid-week vs. end-of-week posting; rounding; signing convention; non-cash-item handling)
• firm.audit_trail_convention (every line tied to a source — invoice, schedule, contract — for treasury reconciliation)
• firm.disclosure_packs (lender-format, Reg-S-K Item 303 if issuer, DIP-budget format if Chapter 11, IPS-aligned)
• firm.compliance_officer_signoff_convention (CCO + CFO + Treasurer sign-off for any external-distribution forecast)
• firm.naming_convention for forecast-deliverable output

Handoff Contracts

• Inbound from:
  • skills/operations/three-statement-model-constructor.md — annual / monthly P&L and balance-sheet projections (the 13-week translates the indirect-method GAAP cash flow into direct-method weekly buckets)
  • skills/operations/budget-variance-analyzer.md — period-end variance commentary that updates the forecast assumptions for the next 13 weeks
  • skills/operations/month-end-close-flux-commentator.md — monthly close that establishes the opening-cash and AR / AP balances
  • skills/operations/loan-covenant-compliance-monitor.md — covenant-definitions and compliance-test pack that frames the cushion line and breach trigger
  • skills/admin/regulatory-filing-checker.md — Reg S-K Item 303 / 8-K Item 2.04 / Reg FD framing for any forecast that may flow into an issuer filing
  • skills/customer-service/ips-generator.md — Corporate-Treasury IPS that frames operating-cash / strategic-cash tier discipline and counterparty-concentration limits
  • skills/sales/advisor-meeting-prep.md — CFO / Treasurer client-meeting context that frames the forecast scope
• Outbound to:
  • skills/operations/loan-covenant-compliance-monitor.md — the 13-week feeds the covenant-compliance test pack (minimum-liquidity, DSCR, fixed-charge-coverage)
  • skills/operations/credit-memo-drafter.md — the cushion / breach / runway analysis becomes the credit-memo liquidity-and-covenant section
  • skills/operations/stress-test-scenario-modeler.md — the base-case forecast is the input to downside / severe-downside / regulatory-stress scenarios
  • skills/operations/three-statement-model-constructor.md — direct-to-indirect reconciliation back into the GAAP cash flow
  • skills/operations/financial-model-documenter.md — the forecast model documentation pack (assumptions, source ties, audit trail)
  • skills/_shared/email-drafter.md — lender / board / sponsor / restructuring-counsel transmittal cover
  • skills/_shared/meeting-summarizer.md — treasury committee / board liquidity-update / DIP-cash-collateral-hearing meeting captures
  • skills/admin/regulatory-filing-checker.md — Reg S-K Item 303 / 8-K Item 2.04 / Reg FD review of any forecast language flowing into an issuer filing
  • skills/operations/pe-due-diligence-synthesizer.md — for sponsor / portfolio-company forecasts that feed deal-thesis triangulation
  • outputs/ — versioned save with the firm's forecast-naming convention; lender / DIP / board-pack appendices as required

Example Output

[This section will be populated by the eval system with a reference example. For now, run the skill with sample input to see output quality.]