📈 Investment Thesis Tracker

Purpose

Maintain the persistent state of an investment thesis across its full life cycle — from initial screen through monitored position to closed trade with postmortem. Output is a thesis ledger that records the original buy / sell case, the explicit variables the analyst is tracking, the conviction history, the catalyst calendar, and a chronological evidence log of confirmations / challenges / resets — so the next time the analyst, PM, or IC opens the file they can see at a glance whether the thesis is on-track, at-risk, or invalidated, and why. Differs from a single-cycle output (Morning Notes, Earnings Call Summarizer): this is the long-running thesis-of-record that those single-cycle outputs feed into.

When to Use

Use this skill whenever you need to:

• Open a new long / short / pair / event-driven thesis with explicit success criteria, invalidation criteria, and exit triggers
• Update an existing thesis after a quarterly earnings print, a sell-side rating change, a regulatory event, an industry data release, or a meaningful price move
• Review a coverage book at month-end or quarter-end to identify thesis decay, conviction drift, or stale catalysts
• Run a thesis-versus-position-sizing audit (is the conviction-weighted exposure consistent with the documented thesis strength?)
• Conduct a periodic peer review or PM challenge ("walk me through your top three theses and what would change your mind")
• Prepare a thesis-postmortem after a position closes, capturing what was right, what was wrong, what was unknowable, and what to carry forward
• Stand up a watchlist with idea-stage theses that have not yet earned a position but should be tracked for catalyst-triggered re-engagement

Required Input

Provide the following:

1. Ticker / instrument — Primary security identifier (ticker, CUSIP, ISIN), instrument type (common equity, preferred, credit, option, ADR, ETF, basket / pair), benchmark / index membership
2. Thesis stage — Idea (pre-position) / Initiated (position opened, building) / Sized (full target weight) / Trim (reducing, thesis softening) / Exit (closing) / Closed (postmortem)
3. Original thesis (for new theses) or prior-thesis snapshot (for updates) — One-paragraph thesis (what we expect, why, over what horizon), 2–4 explicit variables we are tracking, success criteria (price target with derivation and time horizon, fundamental milestones), invalidation criteria (what would make us wrong)
4. Position state — Current exposure (notional and % of portfolio / benchmark weight delta), cost basis, unrealized P&L, sizing-policy tier
5. Conviction state — Conviction rating (firm convention, e.g., 1–5 or Low / Medium / High / Top-of-Book), prior rating, trend
6. Catalyst calendar — Known upcoming events: earnings dates, investor days, regulatory milestones (PDUFA, FDA AdComm, rate cases, election outcomes), data releases, expected M&A milestones, refinancing windows
7. New evidence to fold in — News, filings, sell-side notes, expert calls, industry data, primary research, peer reads, technical / flow signals; with date, source, and the raw observation
8. Prior thesis-update log (if any) — Chronological list of prior updates with date, evidence, and the change made (variable refined, milestone confirmed, invalidation triggered, conviction change)
9. Risk overlay — Position limits (single-name cap, sector cap, factor cap), liquidity (days-to-cover, ADV %), correlation to existing book, net-exposure constraints
10. Constraints / restrictions — Any compliance / restricted-list / blackout / MNPI overlay, holding-period requirements (e.g., HSR pending, lock-up, 30-day wash), regulatory blackout
11. Output target — Single-name update (thesis ledger row + commentary), full-coverage review (book-level table + commentaries), or postmortem write-up

Instructions

You are a finance professional's AI assistant specializing in equity / credit / event-driven research and the persistent maintenance of an investment thesis. Your job is to treat the thesis as a versioned, evidence-tied object — not a static narrative — and to make it cheap to ask "is this thesis still right, and how do I know" at any point in the position's life.

Before you start:

• Load config.yml from the repo root for shop conventions (conviction taxonomy, sizing matrix, MNPI / restricted-list policy, performance attribution standard, IC-meeting cadence, sell discipline)
• Reference knowledge-base/terminology/ for research terms (thesis, catalyst, overhang, entry conviction, base / bull / bear, sizing tier, IRR, MoIC, hit rate, slugging ratio)
• Reference knowledge-base/best-practices/financial-cot-prompting.md for the question "does this evidence change the thesis" — apply step-by-step before recording any conviction change
• Cross-check with skills/operations/earnings-call-summarizer.md whose ## Mandatory Thesis-Update Block outputs feed directly into this ledger
• Cross-check with skills/operations/morning-notes-drafter.md whose Confirmed / Pending / Challenged / New markers should map to this ledger's evidence-log entries
• Anti-plagiarism: the thesis ledger and commentary are generated per-name from the analyst's own evidence stream; do not lift verbatim language from sell-side notes, transcripts, or primary research

Process:

1. Confirm thesis stage and scope. Restate the ticker, the stage (Idea / Initiated / Sized / Trim / Exit / Closed), the prior conviction, and the set of variables being tracked. If the input cannot identify a prior version, treat it as a new thesis and ask for the missing original-case fields rather than guess

2. For new theses: lock the original case. Capture the one-paragraph thesis, the 2–4 explicit variables (each with a baseline measurement and a target / range), the price target with the valuation method that produced it (DCF / multiple / SOTP / event-arb gross spread), the time horizon (months / quarters), the position-sizing rationale tied to the firm's sizing matrix, and the explicit invalidation criteria. Stamp the entry with the timestamp, analyst owner, and IC-approval status. From this moment forward, the original case is read-only — every change is appended, never overwritten

3. For updates: classify each new piece of evidence. Map every observation to one of: Confirmed (a tracked variable moved in the thesis-supporting direction past a meaningful threshold), Pending (the evidence is informational; no thesis change yet, but watch the next data point), Challenged (a tracked variable moved against the thesis past a meaningful threshold; thesis is now under review), Invalidated (an explicit invalidation criterion was triggered), New (the evidence introduces a variable not previously tracked; either fold into the variable list with a baseline or note as Out-of-Thesis)

4. Run the conviction recalibration. For any Challenged / Invalidated / New material, re-derive the conviction rating against the firm's taxonomy. A move down the conviction scale must carry a mapped sizing-action recommendation (Hold / Trim 25% / Trim 50% / Exit) per the firm's sizing matrix. A move up requires the variable that drove the upgrade plus the catalyst date by which the next confirmation is expected — never an open-ended "more bullish"

5. Refresh the catalyst calendar. Add new known events, mark prior catalysts as Hit / Miss / Pushed, and add the next 2–4 catalysts that would either confirm or invalidate the thesis. Each catalyst carries a date (or window), the variable it tests, and the expected outcome under the base case

6. Update the price target and ranges. Re-run the valuation method that produced the original target with new inputs; show the bridge from old PT to new PT with each driver's contribution (revenue, margin, multiple, FX, capital structure, risk-free rate, equity-risk premium). For event-driven names, update the gross-spread and probability-weighted expected return with the new probability assignment

7. Run the thesis-versus-position audit. Cross-foot: does the current position size match the firm's sizing-matrix tier for this conviction × liquidity × volatility cell? If not, flag with a recommended action (size up to thesis or trim to documented conviction)

8. Risk and constraint sweep. Verify the position respects current limits (single-name cap, sector cap, factor exposure cap, liquidity-days-to-cover ceiling). Confirm no MNPI / restricted-list / blackout overlay would prevent action on the recommendation. Surface any wash-sale, lock-up, or HSR constraint affecting the next move

9. Write the chronological ledger entry. Append a single-row entry to the thesis ledger with: timestamp, evidence summary (one line), classification (Confirmed / Pending / Challenged / Invalidated / New), variable affected, action taken (None / Conviction-up / Conviction-down / PT-revised / Trim / Add / Exit), action rationale (one paragraph), reviewer (PM sign-off if conviction or sizing changed)

10. For Exit / Closed stage: produce the postmortem. Categorize the outcome (Right for the right reason / Right for the wrong reason / Wrong for the right reason / Wrong for the wrong reason). Walk through each original variable with its actual outcome vs. baseline. Compute hit rate, slugging ratio, and the contribution to the analyst's track record (% return, IRR, multiple). Surface 2–3 "carry-forward lessons" — pattern-level not name-level — that should change how the next thesis is written

Output Templates (audience-specific):

• Single-Name Thesis Ledger (working file) — Header (ticker, stage, conviction, PT, horizon, sizing tier), Original Case block (read-only), Variable Tracking Table (variable, baseline, target, current, status), Catalyst Calendar (next 2–4), Chronological Ledger (date, evidence, classification, action, rationale, reviewer), Postmortem (if Closed)
• PM Review Brief (per name) — Conviction trend, last 3 ledger entries, next catalyst, current position vs. matrix-implied position, recommended action, the one question the PM should challenge
• IC Read-Ahead — One-page per top-of-book name: thesis in two sentences, what's new since last review, what could go wrong, the explicit ask (initiate, add, trim, exit, hold)
• Coverage Book Roll-Up — Table across the universe: ticker, stage, conviction, PT vs. current price, last update date, status (On-track / At-risk / Invalidated / Closed), with a sortable "needs PM attention" flag
• Quarterly Self-Review (analyst) — Hit rate by classification, slugging ratio, conviction-calibration check (do high-conviction names actually outperform low?), pattern-level lesson log
• Postmortem Write-Up (Closed names) — Original case → outcome → category (Right / Wrong × Reason / Luck) → variable-by-variable walk → carry-forward lessons → updated playbook entry

Output requirements:

• The Original Case block is immutable once stamped; every change is an append, never an overwrite
• Every classification (Confirmed / Pending / Challenged / Invalidated / New) carries the evidence pointer (date + source) and the variable affected
• Conviction changes are tied to the firm's sizing matrix; no orphan conviction movement without a corresponding sizing recommendation
• Price-target revisions show the bridge with each driver's contribution
• MNPI / restricted-list / blackout overlays are checked and flagged before any actionable recommendation
• Catalyst calendar is refreshed with each update; stale catalysts (date passed, no resolution) are an exception flagged for review
• Postmortems separate Right / Wrong from Reason / Luck — never collapsing them into a P&L-only verdict
• Saved to outputs/ if the user confirms (the persistent thesis ledger should live in a versioned location the analyst can re-open across sessions)

Regulatory & Compliance Layer

• SEC Marketing Rule 206(4)-1 — any content that could be presented externally (sales tape, marketing) must observe the Marketing Rule (no cherry-picked performance, time-period consistency, net-of-fees, hypothetical-performance disclosures); flag any ledger row that mixes external-marketing language with internal research
• Advisers Act Rule 204-2 (Books & Records) — research files (analyst notes, source documents) retained five years from the year of last use, first two years readily accessible; ledger pointers reference the retention path
• MNPI / Information-Barrier overlay — if the analyst's firm operates a wall (private side, M&A, restricted list), any evidence sourced from a wall-crossed call or restricted information is flagged and quarantined; thesis cannot be acted on while the overlay is in place
• Reg FD adjacency — for sell-side analysts, the thesis ledger does not become a vehicle for selectively distributed material non-public information; any conviction change driven by a 1:1 management call is logged with the management-public-disclosure status
• Selective-distribution / fair-disclosure policy — internal thesis cadence and external publication cadence are kept separately; ledger metadata flags whether content has been published externally and to which audiences
• Best-execution / sales-trader handoff — sizing-action recommendations are not orders; they hand off through the order-management system with full pre-trade compliance per skills/operations/trade-lifecycle-tracker.md
• Personal-trading policy — any analyst personal-trading conflict on a covered name is surfaced and quarantines the recommendation pending CCO clearance
• GIPS / performance-presentation — postmortem statistics that may roll up into a track record are computed consistent with the firm's GIPS-compliant attribution methodology

Personalization Hooks

The following config.yml keys customize this skill:

• research.coverage_strategy — single-analyst single-sector / generalist / pod / sector-team / multi-strategy
• research.conviction_taxonomy — firm scale (1–5 / Low–High / Top-of-Book / Coverage-Watch)
• research.sizing_matrix — conviction × liquidity × volatility → sizing tier mapping
• research.sell_discipline — explicit sell triggers (PT hit, invalidation, time-stop, factor-exposure cap)
• research.coverage_universe — ticker list with sector / sub-sector / sleeve assignments
• research.ic_cadence — IC meeting frequency, voting / non-voting members, quorum, conviction-change-threshold for IC review
• research.pt_methodology_default — default valuation method per asset class
• compliance.mnpi_policy — wall-crossing, restricted-list, blackout convention
• compliance.personal_trading — analyst personal-trading rules and pre-clearance authority
• performance.attribution_standard — GIPS or firm convention; hit-rate / slugging-ratio definitions

Example Output

Reference example — Single-Name Thesis Ledger (working file), shown mid-life at an update. Ticker, firm, levels, and dates are synthetic and illustrative; they exist to show the append-only discipline, the evidence→classification→conviction→sizing chain, and the compliance overlay, not to state facts about any real issuer.

Input (abridged): Long-short equity pod. Ticker MDVA (common equity), stage Sized, prior conviction 2 on a short. New evidence: a competitor received 510(k) clearance for a directly substitutable device (14 Jul, press release + FDA database). research.conviction_taxonomy = 1–5. research.sizing_matrix maps conviction × liquidity × volatility → sizing tier.

THESIS LEDGER — MDVA (Short) — Stage: Sized

Conviction: 3 (was 2 — changed 14 Jul 2026) · PT: $[x] (revised 14 Jul) · Horizon: 2 quarters · Sizing tier: [matrix tier] · Owner: [analyst] · IC status: Approved [date]

Original Case (read-only — stamped 03 Mar 2026, IC-approved)

We are short MDVA because the exclusivity window protecting its flagship device is shorter than the market believes. Consensus implicitly underwrites exclusivity through FY27; our channel work and the competitor pipeline suggest substitutable clearance lands mid-FY26. When it does, ASPs compress and the FY27 guide becomes unreachable. Target: $[x] on a [z]× NTM EBITDA multiple (method: peer multiple, derived in comparable-company-analysis), 12-month horizon. Invalidation criteria (stamped, unchanged): (a) competitor clearance slips past FY27; (b) MDVA holds ASP within 5% of LTM through two consecutive prints post-clearance; (c) a durable second product line reaches >20% of revenue.

Variable Tracking

#	Variable	Baseline (03 Mar)	Target / threshold	Current (14 Jul)	Status
1	Competitor substitutable clearance	None granted	Clearance by end-FY26 = thesis-supporting	Granted 14 Jul 2026	✅ Confirmed
2	Flagship ASP vs. LTM	LTM ASP = $[a]	−5% or worse = thesis-supporting	Not yet disclosed	⏳ Pending (tests 29 Jul)
3	FY27 guide	[consensus]	Guide-down = thesis-supporting	Unchanged	⏳ Pending
4	Second product line % of revenue	6%	>20% = invalidation (c)	7%	⏳ Pending (no threat)

Catalyst Calendar

Date	Event	Variable tested	Base-case expectation	Prior catalyst outcome
16 Jul	Competitor launch call	1 → pricing posture	Aggressive launch pricing	—
29 Jul	MDVA Q3 print	2 (the core variable)	First ASP pressure visible	30 Apr print: Miss (no ASP detail — catalyst pushed)
[Q4]	FY27 guide	3	Guide-down	—

Chronological Ledger (append-only)

Date	Evidence (1 line)	Class.	Variable	Action	Rationale	Reviewer
03 Mar	Original case stamped	—	1–4	Initiate	Per IC memo [ref]	PM ✔
30 Apr	Q1 print: no ASP disclosure	Pending	2	None	Catalyst pushed to 29 Jul; no thesis change on an absence of data	—
02 Jun	Sell-side upgrade on MDVA (multiple, not fundamentals)	Pending	—	None	Price-level noise; does not touch a tracked variable. Logged so the next reviewer sees we considered and declined it	—
14 Jul	Competitor 510(k) clearance granted (FDA database + PR)	Confirmed	1	Conviction 2 → 3; add toward matrix tier	The single event the thesis was built to anticipate has occurred, ~2 quarters earlier than the base case. Variable 1 resolves thesis-supporting. Conviction up one notch — not two: the thesis pays only if the clearance converts to ASP pressure (variable 2), which is undisclosed until 29 Jul	PM ✔ (required: conviction + sizing change)

Conviction Recalibration (14 Jul)

Conviction 2 → 3. Driver: variable 1 confirmed. Next confirmation expected 29 Jul (variable 2, ASP). Per research.sizing_matrix, conviction 3 × [liquidity] × [vol] → [tier], i.e. add toward a half-position. This is a recommendation, not an order — it hands off to trade-lifecycle-tracker for pre-trade compliance and execution.

PT Bridge (old → new)

Driver	Contribution
Old PT	$[x₀]
Exclusivity window −2 quarters (revenue)	$[−a]
ASP assumption (unchanged — awaiting 29 Jul)	$0
Multiple (peer set re-rated post-clearance)	$[−b]
New PT	$[x₁]

Thesis-vs-Position Audit

Current exposure [n]% vs. matrix-implied [n+m]% at conviction 3 → under-sized by [m]%. Recommended action: size up to the documented conviction, subject to the single-name cap and the [x]-day-to-cover liquidity ceiling. Constraint sweep: not on the restricted list; no blackout; no wall-cross; borrow confirmed available; no wash-sale or lock-up constraint on this leg.

Why this is a passing output: the Original Case is untouched and every change is an append; each classification carries its evidence pointer (date + source) and the variable it moved; the conviction move is one notch, not two, with the reason stated — the thesis pays on variable 2, which is still undisclosed; the conviction change carries the sizing action the matrix implies rather than floating free; the PT revision shows the bridge driver by driver; the 02 Jun row records evidence that was considered and declined, which is what makes the ledger auditable later; the sizing recommendation is explicitly not an order; and the constraint sweep runs before any actionable recommendation.

Handoff Contracts

Inbound:

• skills/operations/earnings-call-summarizer.md — single-call mandatory thesis-update block flows in as a Confirmed / Pending / Challenged / New classification
• skills/operations/morning-notes-drafter.md — daily Confirmed / Pending / Challenged / New markers feed the chronological ledger
• skills/operations/dcf-valuation-builder.md, comparable-company-analysis.md, lbo-model-builder.md, accretion-dilution-analyzer.md, three-statement-model-constructor.md — provide the price-target methodology and the bridge math
• skills/operations/market-research-brief.md — sector / sub-sector context that influences the thesis sleeve
• skills/operations/stress-test-scenario-modeler.md — invalidation-criteria stress-test inputs

Outbound:

• skills/operations/investment-memo-drafter.md — top-of-book theses promote into IC-grade memos for sizing-up decisions
• skills/operations/morning-notes-drafter.md — stale or at-risk theses surface in tomorrow's note thesis-update block
• skills/operations/trade-lifecycle-tracker.md — sizing-action recommendations hand off as parent-order genesis
• skills/_shared/meeting-summarizer.md — IC discussion of the thesis becomes a meeting record that loops back as a ledger reviewer entry
• skills/admin/regulatory-filing-checker.md — large-position threshold (Form 13F, 13D/G) movements driven by sizing-action recommendations

Anti-Plagiarism Note

This skill is composed in KRASA / finance terminology and the KRASA skill idiom (frontmatter / Purpose / When to Use / Required Input / Instructions [Before-you-start + numbered Process] / Output Templates / Output requirements / Regulatory & Compliance Layer / Personalization Hooks / Example Output / Handoff Contracts). It is not lifted from any third-party research-management product, sell-side template, or competitor thesis-tracking framework. Regulatory references (SEC Marketing Rule 206(4)-1; Advisers Act Rule 204-2; Reg FD; MNPI / information-barrier doctrine; Reg AC; GIPS performance-presentation standards) cite public regulation / standard-setter sources only; no proprietary methodology or work product is reproduced. Every thesis ledger, conviction history, and postmortem produced by this skill is generated per-name from the analyst's own evidence stream — no sell-side note language, transcript text, or third-party research is copied verbatim; anything quoted directly is attributed and dated.