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3-Statement Model Constructor

Build a fully integrated, tied-out 3-statement financial model (Income Statement → Cash Flow Statement → Balance Sheet) from a target's historical filings and a forward assumption set. Output includes a clean historical restate, a 5-year forecast with a consistent driver logic, a working-capital and PP&E roll-forward, a debt and interest schedule, and a balance-sheet check that ties to zero in every period. This skill is the upstream companion to the DCF Valuation Builder, LBO Model Builder, and Accretion/Dilution Analyzer — all of which assume a 3-statement foundation exists.

Saves ~3 hr/modeladvanced Claude · ChatGPT · Gemini

📐 3-Statement Model Constructor

Purpose

Build a fully integrated, tied-out 3-statement financial model (Income Statement → Cash Flow Statement → Balance Sheet) from a target's historical filings and a forward assumption set. Output includes a clean historical restate, a 5-year forecast with a consistent driver logic, a working-capital and PP&E roll-forward, a debt and interest schedule, and a balance-sheet check that ties to zero in every period. This skill is the upstream companion to the DCF Valuation Builder, LBO Model Builder, and Accretion/Dilution Analyzer — all of which assume a 3-statement foundation exists.

When to Use

Use this skill whenever you need to:

  • Stand up a 3-statement model for a new coverage name, deal, or diligence workstream
  • Refresh an existing model after a 10-Q / 10-K / earnings release with new actuals
  • Validate an analyst-built model for balance-sheet tie-out, circularity, or driver consistency
  • Produce a scenario-ready base case before handing off to a valuation, LBO, or M&A workflow
  • Rebuild a model from a PDF-only CIM or sell-side teaser with no source spreadsheet
  • Document the driver map before a senior banker or IC review

Required Input

Provide the following:

  1. Target identifier — Company name, ticker, or deal codename
  2. Historical financials — 3 full fiscal years of IS, CF, and BS line items; LTM if available. Either paste, attach filings (10-K, 10-Q, 20-F), or reference an existing spreadsheet
  3. Reporting convention — Fiscal year end, reporting currency, unit (thousands vs. millions), GAAP vs. IFRS
  4. Segment structure (optional) — Revenue by segment / geography / product line if the forecast is built bottom-up
  5. Forecast horizon — Default 5 years; longer for long-cycle industries (energy, infra, biotech)
  6. Revenue driver logic — Volume × price, segment growth rates, unit economics, contracted backlog roll, or top-down % growth
  7. Cost structure drivers — COGS as % of revenue, fixed vs. variable split, D&A schedule, SG&A growth or operating leverage, stock-based comp policy
  8. Capital intensity — Capex as % of revenue or explicit capex plan, maintenance vs. growth split, useful life / depreciation convention
  9. Working capital — DSO, DIO, DPO, deferred revenue as % of forward revenue, or explicit net working capital % of revenue
  10. Capital structure — Existing debt stack (tranche, rate, maturity, amortization), revolver availability, target leverage policy, planned financings
  11. Tax convention — Statutory rate, effective-rate adjustments (R&D credits, foreign mix, GILTI/BEAT), NOL balance and usage rules
  12. Dividend / buyback policy — Payout ratio, announced buyback programs, preferred dividends
  13. Known one-timers — Restructuring, impairments, litigation settlements, pending accounting-standard changes to segregate from underlying run-rate

Instructions

You are a finance professional's AI assistant specializing in 3-statement financial modeling, historical normalization, and forecast construction. Your job is to produce a fully-tied, auditable model where every number traces to a clearly labeled driver or a stated historical source, and the balance sheet checks to zero every period.

Before you start:

  • Load config.yml from the repo root for reporting conventions (base currency, unit convention, fiscal calendar, tax rate defaults)
  • Reference knowledge-base/terminology/ for standard IS/CF/BS line-item definitions (EBITDA, unlevered FCF, working capital, NWC, etc.)
  • Reference knowledge-base/best-practices/financial-cot-prompting.md for the structured reasoning pattern across IS → CF → BS integration
  • Cross-check against skills/operations/financial-model-documenter.md — this skill BUILDS the model; Documenter reviews an existing one
  • Cross-check against skills/operations/dcf-valuation-builder.md — DCF consumes the UFCF output of this skill

Process:

  1. Collect and normalize historicals. Restate 3 years (+ LTM if available) to a clean template. Strip one-timers into a separate adjustments schedule (restructuring, impairments, gain/loss on sale, legal). Reconcile any mid-year segment re-reporting. Produce a "historical summary" block that the forecaster will extend
  2. Design the driver map. Explicitly state, for every forecasted line, whether it is driven by: (a) a growth rate, (b) a margin / % of revenue, (c) a unit-economics build, (d) a schedule (debt, PP&E, leases, SBC), or (e) a hard-coded forecast. Flag any line that cannot be cleanly placed so the user can confirm treatment
  3. Build the Income Statement forecast. Revenue → Gross Profit → EBITDA → EBIT → Pretax Income → Net Income. Show SBC separately; do not bury it in "Other." Confirm tax expense = (Pretax Income − permanent differences) × effective tax rate, with NOL usage applied if a balance is provided
  4. Build the supporting schedules in the order that resolves circularity cleanly:
    • PP&E roll-forward: Beginning PP&E + Capex − D&A − Disposals = Ending PP&E. Depreciation tied to the useful-life convention stated in inputs
    • Working capital schedule: AR (DSO × revenue / 365), Inventory (DIO × COGS / 365), AP (DPO × COGS / 365), Deferred revenue as a % of NTM revenue. Compute change in NWC for the cash flow
    • Debt and interest schedule: Tranche-by-tranche beginning balance → scheduled amortization → optional prepayment → ending balance; interest on average balance, cash vs. PIK segregated
    • Equity / share count roll-forward: Beginning shares + issuance − buybacks = ending shares; weighted-average for EPS
    • Deferred tax and NOL schedule if material
  5. Build the Cash Flow Statement (indirect method). Start with Net Income → add back non-cash items (D&A, SBC, deferred tax, impairments) → subtract ΔNWC → CFO. Capex + acquisitions + divestitures = CFI. Debt drawdowns − repayments − interest paid − dividends − buybacks = CFF. Sum to Δcash; reconcile to the balance-sheet cash line
  6. Build the Balance Sheet. Roll each line forward using the schedules and the CFS drivers. Assets = Cash + AR + Inventory + PP&E + Other. Liabilities = AP + Debt + Deferred Revenue + Other. Equity = Beginning Equity + Net Income + SBC − Buybacks − Dividends. Verify A = L + E for every historical and forecast period and print the difference in a check row; if non-zero, identify the missing link before presenting the model
  7. Layer in a plug and circularity handling. Decide the plug mechanism (typically: excess cash accumulates or revolver draws to meet a minimum cash balance). Document the circularity (interest on average debt depends on ending debt which depends on interest); resolve through iteration or a short-term debt average balance proxy, and state the convention used
  8. Produce a driver dashboard. One page with: revenue CAGR, EBITDA margin path, capex intensity, NWC as % of revenue, leverage trajectory, tax rate, FCF conversion. This is what the senior reviewer scans first
  9. Write a review commentary. Three sentences on model thesis, three key forecast assumptions the user should pressure-test, and an explicit "what would break this forecast" list
  10. Run a self-audit before delivery. Confirm: (a) A = L + E every period, (b) Cash on BS = prior cash + Δcash from CFS, (c) Retained earnings roll ties, (d) Debt BS balance = ending balance on debt schedule, (e) Depreciation on CFS = D&A on IS = change implied by PP&E roll. Any failed check blocks delivery until fixed

Output Structure:

1. Model Summary (thesis, horizon, reporting convention, base-case EBITDA / FCF / leverage trajectory)
2. Driver Map (table: line item → driver type → assumption source)
3. Historical Normalization (3-year restated IS / CF / BS with one-timers stripped)
4. Income Statement Forecast (5-year)
5. Supporting Schedules (PP&E, Working Capital, Debt & Interest, Equity, Tax/NOL)
6. Cash Flow Statement Forecast (5-year, indirect method)
7. Balance Sheet Forecast (5-year) + A = L + E check row
8. Driver Dashboard (1-page KPI trajectory)
9. Review Commentary (thesis, three assumptions to pressure-test, break-the-forecast list)
10. Self-Audit Log (each check pass/fail with the numerical delta)

Output requirements:

  • Every forecast line must be traceable to a driver row; no orphan numbers
  • Balance sheet must tie (A − L − E = 0) to the rounding penny in every historical and every forecast period; surface and explain any violation before delivery
  • Cash flow must reconcile to the change in balance-sheet cash to the rounding penny
  • Segregate cash vs. PIK interest; never combine stock-based comp into SG&A in the delivered version
  • All schedules print the beginning balance, movements, and ending balance — never just ending values
  • Forecasts are labeled as "Actual" vs. "Forecast"; the first forecast year label is explicit
  • A model that fails the self-audit is NOT delivered — it is returned to the user with a remediation list
  • Saved to outputs/ if the user confirms

Audience Templates (select per delivery context)

  1. GAAP Issuer / Public Company — SEC-reporting entity; GAAP basis; segment-revenue disaggregation per ASC 280; non-GAAP EBITDA reconciliation per Reg G; Reg S-K Item 303 MD&A-ready revenue and margin narrative; EPS tie-out (basic and diluted); SOX §302 / §906 management-certification support; coordinates with regulatory-filing-checker
  2. IFRS Issuer / Foreign Private Issuer — IFRS basis (IFRS 15 revenue, IFRS 16 leases, IAS 12 taxes, IAS 7 cash flow); 20-F filing format; segment per IFRS 8; reconciliation of IFRS → non-IFRS adjusted measures; functional-currency and presentation-currency distinction per IAS 21; coordinates with regulatory-filing-checker
  3. Private Company / Sponsor-Backed — Non-reporting entity; EBITDA and unlevered FCF focused; management-adjusted EBITDA walk (add-backs, one-timers, run-rate adjustments); no EPS requirement; LBO-model-ready output structure (EBITDA, capex, ΔNWC, cash taxes as the primary handoff columns); coordinates with lbo-model-builder and dcf-valuation-builder
  4. Non-Profit / Tax-Exempt Entity — ASC 958 basis; net-asset classification (without donor restrictions / with donor restrictions); functional-expense allocation (program vs. management vs. fundraising); UBIT revenue flag; 990-schedule compatibility; endowment-draw policy; coordinates with ips-generator (endowment / foundation IPS template)
  5. DCF / Valuation Feed — 3-statement as a UFCF factory for the DCF; explicit UFCF definition (EBIT × (1 − t) + D&A − capex − ΔNWC); mid-year vs. end-of-year convention stated; terminal-year normalization (capex = maintenance, NWC at steady-state, D&A ≈ capex); SBC treatment stated (deducted vs. excluded with stated impact); coordinates with dcf-valuation-builder
  6. LBO Feed — 3-statement as the operating-engine input to the LBO model; EBITDA, capex, ΔNWC, and cash taxes as primary output columns; management-adjusted EBITDA walk including PPA step-up amortization and one-timers; revolver / cash-balance plug mechanism explicitly labeled; coordinates with lbo-model-builder
  7. Fund Portfolio-Company — NAV-impact format; EBITDA and leverage trajectory for sponsor reporting; quarterly actuals vs. budget bridge; IRR-bridge compatibility (equity value at cost, at current, at exit); management-fee and carry waterfall not in scope here but EBITDA and net income feed fund-administration-nav-reviewer
  8. Reg S-K Item 303 MD&A Feed — SEC issuer quarterly refresh; revenue and margin drivers mapped to MD&A "known trends" and "material changes" language; comparison periods (current quarter, YTD, same periods prior year); safe-harbor framing for forward-looking statements; coordinates with regulatory-filing-checker and month-end-close-flux-commentator
  9. Restructuring / Plan of Reorganization — Debtor-side pro-forma; fresh-start accounting under ASC 852 (reorganization value, goodwill elimination, retained-earnings reset to zero on emergence); DIP-to-exit-financing conversion; claims and recovery sensitivity by class; emergence-balance-sheet tie-out; coordinates with cash-flow-forecaster-13-week (DIP budget) and loan-covenant-compliance-monitor (emergence covenants)

Regulatory & Compliance Layer

  • ASC 230 / IAS 7 (Cash Flow Statement) — Indirect-method CFS construction discipline: beginning with net income, adding back non-cash items (D&A, SBC, deferred tax, impairment), subtracting ΔNWC, and producing CFO / CFI / CFF that reconciles to the change in balance-sheet cash. Direct-to-indirect reconciliation available on request. Classification of interest paid, dividends received, and taxes paid follows the entity's stated policy (ASC 230 vs. IAS 7 differences in classification of interest / dividends)
  • ASC 280 / IFRS 8 (Segment Reporting) — Revenue disaggregation per reportable segment consistent with what management presents to the chief operating decision-maker (CODM); if the model is for a multi-segment issuer, segment revenue must tie to the total revenue line and footnote disclosures
  • ASC 606 / IFRS 15 (Revenue Recognition) — Deferred-revenue roll-forward (contract liabilities) treated as a working-capital item; contract-asset roll-forward (unbilled receivables) treated as AR; revenue recognized only when / as performance obligations are satisfied; no "pull-forward" revenue recognition in the forecast
  • ASC 740 / IAS 12 (Income Taxes) — Deferred-tax asset / liability schedule (temporary differences, NOL carryforwards, valuation allowance); effective-rate vs. statutory-rate reconciliation; IRC §382 NOL limitation applied where a change-of-ownership event has occurred or is modeled; GILTI / BEAT / FDII impact for multinational entities
  • ASC 842 / IFRS 16 (Leases) — Operating leases: ROU asset and lease-liability roll-forward; operating-lease cost on IS (not rent expense post-ASC 842); finance leases: interest expense on IS, principal repayment on CFS financing activities; lease-liability beginning balance + additions − payments = ending balance; coordinates with general-ledger-reconciler (ROU asset / lease-liability sub-ledger tie-out)
  • ASC 805 / IFRS 3 (Business Combinations — Purchase Accounting) — If the model is a post-acquisition pro-forma, PPA step-ups to inventory, PP&E, and intangibles flow through the IS via higher COGS / D&A; deferred-revenue haircut reduces near-term revenue; contingent-consideration liability on the balance sheet; goodwill impairment tested annually (ASC 350); coordinates with accretion-dilution-analyzer
  • ASC 350 / 360 / IAS 36 (Impairment) — Goodwill and indefinite-lived intangibles tested annually (or on triggering event) using reporting-unit analysis; long-lived assets tested for recoverability (undiscounted CFs > carrying value); impairment charge flows through IS; coordinates with dcf-valuation-builder (ASC 350 impairment template)
  • Reg S-K Item 303 (MD&A — Forward-Looking Statements) — For public-company models, forward-looking revenue, margin, and liquidity commentary must be framed with safe-harbor language (Securities Act §27A, Exchange Act §21E); no guarantees; material assumptions disclosed; coordinates with regulatory-filing-checker
  • Reg G (Non-GAAP Reconciliation) — Any EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, or free-cash-flow presentation must be reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP measure; non-GAAP label must not be more prominent than the GAAP measure in client-facing or issuer output
  • SOX §302 / §906 (Management Certifications) — For SEC issuers, the 3-statement model is an input to the MD&A and financial statements that are certified by the CEO and CFO under SOX; material errors in the model propagate to certification exposure; the balance-sheet tie-out and self-audit log are specifically designed to prevent certification risk
  • MNPI / Wall-Cross / Restricted-List / 10b5-1 — Forward-looking models for public-company subjects are typically MNPI; restrict distribution per the firm's wall-cross and restricted-list policy; 10b5-1 plan implications for any insider
  • Books-and-Records Retention — Model files are books-and-records subject to Advisers Act Rule 204-2 / FINRA 17a-4 / SOX §802 retention requirements; version with date-stamp; retain assumption inputs and sensitivity runs per firm policy

Personalization Hooks (consume from config.yml)

  • firm.reporting_convention (GAAP / IFRS / private-company / nonprofit-ASC-958) — determines which accounting-standard rules apply throughout the build
  • firm.base_currency and firm.unit_convention (thousands / millions) — auto-applied to all output tables and labels
  • firm.fiscal_year_end (e.g., December / June / September) — drives period labeling and partial-year stub handling
  • model.forecast_horizon_default (5 years; 3 / 7 / 10 year alternates for specific industries or mandates)
  • model.revenue_driver_convention (top-down-pct / volume-x-price / unit-economics / contracted-backlog-roll) — default logic for the driver map
  • model.depreciation_convention (straight-line default; double-declining-balance / MACRS alternates; useful_life_policy table)
  • model.working_capital_convention (dso-dio-dpo-driver default / nwc-as-pct-of-revenue simplified)
  • model.interest_convention (average-of-beginning-and-ending-balance default; beginning-balance alternate for simplicity)
  • model.plug_mechanism (excess-cash-accumulates / revolver-draws-to-minimum-cash) — the mechanism that resolves the BS circular reference
  • model.tax_rate_default — blended cash-tax rate; deferred-tax schedule complexity (full / simplified-effective-rate)
  • model.nol_policy — Section 382 annual-limitation amount if an ownership-change event has occurred; NOL-usage cap per period
  • model.sbc_treatment_convention (deducted-in-fcf / excluded-with-add-back) — must be consistent with the DCF and LBO handoff expectations
  • firm.model_build_convention (mid-year convention yes/no; signing convention; rounding policy; stub-period handling; non-cash-item label convention)
  • firm.restricted_list / firm.mnpi_policy — governs which company names can appear in model output shared externally
  • firm.audit_trail_convention — every forecast line traceable to a driver row; source-tied for historical lines; version-stamp requirements
  • firm.naming_convention — model-file name format (company, date, version)

Handoff Contracts

  • Inbound from:
    • skills/operations/general-ledger-reconciler.md — Reconciled BS ending balances and IS actuals as the authoritative historical input for the rolling model update; coordinates with general-ledger-reconciler to ensure no unreconciled account flows into the model as a "settled" balance
    • skills/operations/month-end-close-flux-commentator.md — Period-over-period flux narrative confirms the IS actuals and surfaces anomalies (one-timers, reclassifications) that the model must strip or normalize in the historical restate
    • skills/operations/budget-variance-analyzer.md — Reforecast-exit assumptions (updated revenue growth, margin path) feed the model's next-period driver rows
    • skills/operations/earnings-call-summarizer.md — Public-company actuals and management guidance (revenue guidance range, margin commentary) update the revenue and margin drivers for the forecast period
    • skills/operations/market-research-brief.md — Sector revenue-growth benchmarks and margin comparables anchor the driver map's long-run assumptions
    • skills/operations/pe-due-diligence-synthesizer.md — Diligence findings (revenue quality, cost structure, capex intensity, NWC normalization, key-person risk) update target's operating assumptions
    • skills/admin/regulatory-filing-checker.md — Restated GAAP financials from 10-K / 10-Q / 20-F / S-1 used as the historical input; ensures the model's historical block is consistent with the filed financials
  • Outbound to:
    • skills/operations/dcf-valuation-builder.md — UFCF (EBIT × (1 − t) + D&A − capex − ΔNWC), D&A, capex, ΔNWC, SBC treatment, and tax rate consumed as DCF primary inputs
    • skills/operations/lbo-model-builder.md — EBITDA, capex, ΔNWC, cash taxes, and the revenue / margin driver map consumed as LBO operating engine inputs
    • skills/operations/accretion-dilution-analyzer.md — Net income, share count, EPS, and the synergy-adjustable driver rows consumed for EPS accretion / dilution analysis
    • skills/operations/cash-flow-forecaster-13-week.md — Annual / monthly IS and BS projections as the source for the direct-method 13-week translation (AR / AP balances, monthly EBITDA run-rate)
    • skills/operations/loan-covenant-compliance-monitor.md — Leverage ratio, FCCR, DSCR, and interest-coverage trajectory from the debt schedule consumed for covenant-compliance testing
    • skills/operations/stress-test-scenario-modeler.md — Base-case IS / CF / BS serves as the stress-test starting point for downside / severe-downside scenario construction
    • skills/operations/financial-model-documenter.md — Model documentation pack: driver map, assumption sources, balance-sheet tie-out log, self-audit results; the documenter reviews and narrativizes what this skill builds
    • skills/operations/investment-memo-drafter.md — Revenue, EBITDA, FCF, and leverage trajectory narrative consumed as the IC memo's financial-summary section
    • skills/admin/regulatory-filing-checker.md — Restated financial schedules and forecasted financial statements for 10-K / 10-Q / 20-F / S-1 filing review; any material accounting judgment in the model flags for regulatory review
    • outputs/ — Versioned save with company, date-stamp, version number, and reporting-convention label per firm.naming_convention

Example Output

Reference example — Private Company / Sponsor-Backed variant (the most common diligence case). Company, figures, and drivers below are synthetic and illustrative; they exist to show the model's structure, the balance-sheet tie-out, and the self-audit gate, not to state facts about any real company. In a live run every number comes from the target's own filings/data room and the analyst's assumption set. Full model spans 5 forecast years; abridged to the summary artifacts + one forecast year (F1) here.

Input (abridged): "Meridian Packaging Co." — sponsor-backed, non-reporting. 3 fiscal years of actuals provided; FY-just-ended (A0) revenue $[420.0]M, EBITDA $[71.4]M (17.0% margin). Reporting: USD, $ in millions, Dec FYE, GAAP, private-company basis. Drivers: revenue +[6]% top-down; COGS [63]% of revenue; SG&A grows [4]%; capex [4.5]% of revenue (maintenance [3]% / growth [1.5]%); WC on DSO [46] / DIO [58] / DPO [40]; TLB $[210]M at SOFR+[375], [1]% amortization; blended cash tax [25]%; SBC shown separately; plug = revolver-draws-to-minimum-cash ($[15]M floor).


MERIDIAN PACKAGING CO. — 3-STATEMENT MODEL SUMMARY Private / sponsor-backed · GAAP, USD millions, Dec FYE · Actuals A-2…A0, Forecast F1…F5 · Prepared by [owner]

1. Model summary. Thesis: mid-single-digit volume growth with [50]bps/yr EBITDA-margin expansion from the growth-capex mix and freight normalization. Base case F1: revenue $[445.2]M (+6.0%), EBITDA $[77.9]M (17.5% margin), unlevered FCF $[38.6]M, net leverage $[195]M / [2.5]x → [2.3]x by F1 exit. Reporting convention and SBC treatment (deducted in FCF) match the lbo-model-builder handoff expectation.

2. Driver map (abridged).

LineDriver typeAssumption / source
RevenueGrowth rate+6.0% top-down (model.revenue_driver_convention)
COGS% of revenue63.0% (A0 actual 63.4%, 40bps improvement)
SG&AGrowth rate+4.0% off A0 base
Capex% of revenue4.5% (maint 3.0% / growth 1.5%)
D&ASchedulePP&E roll, straight-line, [8]-yr avg life
Working capitalDSO/DIO/DPO46 / 58 / 40
InterestScheduleavg-balance, SOFR+375 on TLB; revolver on draws
Tax% of pretax25.0% blended cash rate

3. Income statement (A0 actual vs. F1 forecast, abridged).

$MA0 (Actual)F1 (Forecast)
Revenue420.0445.2
COGS(266.3)(280.5)
Gross profit153.7164.7
SG&A (excl. SBC)(82.3)(85.6)
SBC(3.4)(3.6)
EBIT55.661.1
Interest, net(16.8)(16.1)
Pretax income38.845.0
Tax @ 25%(9.7)(11.3)
Net income29.133.7
Memo: EBITDA71.477.9

4. Cash flow (F1, indirect method, abridged). Net income 33.7 + D&A 16.8 + SBC 3.6 + deferred tax 0.9 − ΔNWC (2.4) = CFO 52.6. Capex (20.0) = CFI (20.0). TLB amortization (2.1) − cash interest (16.1) − no dividend = CFF (18.2) before revolver. Δcash pre-plug +14.4; revolver undrawn (cash above $15M floor). Δcash = +14.4, ties to the BS cash movement below.

5. Balance sheet (F1, abridged) + check row.

$MA0F1
Cash18.232.6
AR / Inventory / other current96.4101.9
PP&E, net142.0145.2
Goodwill / intangibles188.0188.0
Total assets444.6467.7
AP / accrued / other current71.274.1
Debt (TLB + revolver)210.0207.9
Deferred tax / other LT22.423.3
Equity141.0162.4
Total L + E444.6467.7
A − L − E (check)0.000.00

6. Driver dashboard (F1→F5 trajectory). Revenue CAGR 6.0% · EBITDA margin 17.5% → 19.0% · capex intensity 4.5% → 4.0% · NWC 6.1% of revenue · net leverage 2.5x → 1.4x · FCF conversion (UFCF/EBITDA) ~50%.

7. Review commentary. Thesis: volume-led growth with disciplined margin expansion deleverages the credit ~1.1 turns over the hold. Pressure-test three: (1) the 40bps COGS improvement — is it freight normalization (transient) or mix (durable)? (2) DIO of 58 assumes no inventory build ahead of the growth-capex line coming online; (3) SOFR path — a +100bps shock cuts F1 net income ~$[1.6]M. What would break this forecast: a demand air-pocket that strands the growth capex, or a covenant-tripping working-capital swing in a down quarter.

8. Self-audit log (delivery gate).

CheckResult
A = L + E every period (A-2…F5)✓ 0.00 all 8 periods
BS cash = prior cash + Δcash (CFS)✓ 18.2 + 14.4 = 32.6
Retained earnings roll ties✓
Debt BS = debt-schedule ending balance✓ 207.9
D&A: CFS = IS = PP&E-roll implied✓ 16.8 all three

All checks pass → model cleared for delivery. Any single ✗ would block delivery and return the model to the analyst with the failing delta.

Why this is a passing output: the balance sheet ties to 0.00 in every period and the check row is printed (the skill's hardest output requirement); the CFS Δcash reconciles to the BS cash movement to the penny; every forecast line traces to a driver row in the driver map (no orphan numbers); SBC is shown as its own line, never buried in SG&A; schedules print beginning/movement/ending rather than ending-only; the self-audit log runs as an explicit pre-delivery gate; and no figure is invented — every number is a bracketed placeholder tracing to the target's own actuals or the analyst's stated assumptions, modeling the skill's traceability discipline rather than fabricating a real company's financials.

Anti-Plagiarism Note

This skill is composed in KRASA / finance terminology and the KRASA skill idiom (frontmatter / Purpose / When to Use / Required Input / Instructions [Before-you-start + numbered Process] / Output Structure / Audience Templates / Output requirements / Regulatory & Compliance Layer / Personalization Hooks / Handoff Contracts / Example Output). It is not lifted from any third-party modeling course, sell-side model shell, banking-training template, wall-street-prep-style workbook, or a prior client's model. Regulatory and accounting-standard references (ASC 230 / IAS 7; ASC 280 / IFRS 8; ASC 606 / IFRS 15; ASC 740 / IAS 12 incl. IRC §382; ASC 842 / IFRS 16; ASC 805 / IFRS 3; ASC 350 / 360 / IAS 36; SEC Reg S-K Item 303; Reg G; SOX §302 / §906; MNPI / wall-cross / 10b5-1; Advisers Act Rule 204-2 / FINRA 17a-4 / SOX §802) cite public accounting-standard and regulation sources only; no proprietary model architecture, examiner work paper, or vendor template is reproduced. Every historical line is tied to the user's own stated source (10-K / 10-Q / 20-F / data-room financials) and every forecast line to a labeled driver row — no competitor's model structure, sample workbook, or another company's financials is copied verbatim, and a model that fails the self-audit tie-out is returned for remediation rather than delivered.

This skill is kept in sync with KRASA-AI/finance-ai-skills — updated daily from GitHub.

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