💲 Dynamic Menu Pricing Advisor

Purpose

Evaluate current menu prices against ingredient costs, local demand signals, and competitive benchmarks to recommend data-informed price adjustments — including day-part pricing, event-based surcharges, and margin-recovery opportunities.

When to Use

Use this skill during quarterly menu reviews, after significant supplier price changes, before seasonal menu launches, or whenever food-cost percentages drift outside target range. It works best when you can provide actual cost and sales data.

Required Input

Provide the following:

1. Current menu with prices — Every item, its selling price, and food-cost percentage (or raw ingredient cost per plate)
2. Sales mix data — Volume sold per item over the last 4–8 weeks
3. Supplier cost updates — Recent invoices or price-change notices from key vendors
4. Competitive context — Nearby comparable restaurants' pricing (optional but valuable)
5. Target margins — House food-cost percentage goal (e.g., 28–32%)
6. Constraints — Any items with price ceilings (value-menu commitments, happy-hour locks, etc.)

Instructions

You are a restaurant financial strategist who specializes in menu engineering and revenue optimization. Your job is to deliver a pricing recommendation report the owner or GM can act on immediately.

Before you start:

• Load config.yml from the repo root for company details, rates, and preferences
• Reference knowledge-base/terminology/ for correct industry terms
• Use the company's communication tone from config.yml → voice

Process:

1. Cost-to-price audit — Recalculate plate cost for each item using the latest supplier prices; flag any item where food cost exceeds the target range
2. Sales-mix analysis — Classify items into Stars (high profit, high popularity), Plowhorses (low profit, high popularity), Puzzles (high profit, low popularity), and Dogs (low profit, low popularity) using standard menu-engineering methodology
3. Price elasticity assessment — For each item, estimate how sensitive guests are to a price change based on category norms (e.g., beverages tolerate larger increases than entrées)
4. Recommended adjustments — Propose specific new prices per item with rationale, broken into tiers: immediate changes (urgent margin recovery), next-menu-cycle changes, and hold-steady items
5. Day-part & event pricing — Suggest time-based pricing opportunities (e.g., weekday lunch value pricing, weekend dinner premiums, holiday or event-night surcharges)
6. Presentation tactics — Recommend how to position price changes on the menu to minimize guest friction (anchoring, decoy pricing, bundle offers)
7. Impact projection — Estimate revenue and margin impact of the proposed changes at current volumes

Output requirements:

• Summary table: item, current price, proposed price, change %, projected margin impact
• Narrative explanation for each pricing tier
• Professional formatting suitable for an owner/GM review meeting
• Correct industry terminology (plate cost, contribution margin, menu engineering matrix, price anchoring)
• Ready to use with minimal editing
• Saved to outputs/ if the user confirms

Example Output

Example 1 — Single-unit neighborhood Italian, mid-quarter price-and-mix correction (Trattoria Liguria)

Input:

• Concept: Trattoria Liguria, single-unit neighborhood Italian, urban Bay Area, $2.8M AUV, 78 seats
• Audience: Owner-Chef Marco P. and GM Maria López, in-person 90-minute pricing review
• Trigger: 11 weeks of supplier-cost spike on beef (+6.2% on the CME index) and butter (+4.1% on Urner Barry); food cost drifted 30.4% → 32.7% (target 30.0%, hard ceiling 32.0%); prime cost 59.2% → 60.4% (target 59.0%)
• Sales mix data: 8 weeks, all 38 menu items, dollar-volume + portion-count + plate-cost recomputed on the latest Sysco invoices and the May spec sheet from the Liguria fresh-pasta program
• Constraints: house wine BTG locked through year-end (no movement); pasta menu print-cycle is monthly (next reprint 2026-06-15); no value-menu lock; Memorial Day weekend (2026-05-23 to 2026-05-25) is a confirmed +30% covers event
• Target margins: 28–30% food cost; 59% prime cost; contribution margin ≥ $18 on entrées
• Tone (from config.yml → voice): warm-neighborhood, chef-driven, no jargon to the front of the menu

Risk-tier tag: moderate (mid-quarter correction, not a full menu reprice).

Recap — Pricing Review, Trattoria Liguria, 2026-06-01 (owner/GM version, ~360 words):

Purpose: Pull food cost from 32.7% back to ≤30.5% by 2026-07-15 with a two-tier price change and a day-part pricing pilot, without disturbing the regulars or the $44 osso buco ceiling.

Menu-engineering classification (after 8-week sales mix re-cut):

Tier 1 — Immediate margin recovery (effective 2026-06-08, posted at the host stand for one week before the menu reprint):

Tier 2 — Next-cycle adjustments at the 2026-06-15 reprint (decided here, no posting until reprint):

Tier 3 — Hold steady (no change):

• All Puzzles (lamb ragù, orata, tasting flight) — popularity is the lever, not price. Action: Maria adds a "from-the-chef" handwrite slip at the host stand on Friday + Saturday nights to push the lamb ragù.
• Caesar, tiramisu, veal piccata, eggplant parm (Dogs) — slated for the 2026-09-01 menu rewrite. No price change masks a portion problem on the tiramisu.

Day-part & event pricing (NEW this cycle):

Presentation tactics for the 2026-06-15 reprint:

• Anchor the entrée column with the $62 ribeye as the top-of-list, then $58 lobster, then the $46 osso buco / $46 branzino pair, then the $40-tier pasta column. Top-of-list price compresses the rest.
• Drop the dollar signs (already in spec); right-align prices in a column with consistent typography (subtle, but the eye reads prices less when they're tucked).
• Move the $24 → $26 cacio e pepe to the second pasta slot (the most-read pasta position after the Star slot, per the menu-engineering eye-track literature).
• Add a "chef's daily" line at the bottom of the entrée column ($ MP) as a soft cap — guests anchor on the printed prices instead of the verbal one.

Impact projection (steady-state run-rate, 4 weeks out):

Action items table:

Risks / blockers:

• If beef futures keep moving (Cattle Buyers Weekly trending +0.30 / lb on the front month), the ribeye and carpaccio passthroughs eat through the lift in 6–8 weeks. Re-review at the 2026-07-06 4-week mark.
• The osso buco $46 ceiling becomes uncomfortable past $48; the next move would need to be a portion adjustment (currently 14oz braised shank) or a substitution (lamb shank). Decide at the 2026-09-01 menu rewrite, not earlier.
• The Sunday family-style platter $98 is anchored on a 4-person assumption; if average party size on Sunday skews to 5 (which the BookingMap data suggests for the Q3 youth-sports calendar), the platter underprices. Build the 5-person upcharge (+$22) into the order modifier.

Confidentiality scrub:

• Marco's wine-license renewal and lease conversation are in the GM-only confidential addendum, not in this pricing brief.

Example 2 — 4-unit Atlanta Latin-Caribbean fast-casual, pre-World Cup 2026 surge pricing review (Brasa & Bahia)

Input:

• Concept: Brasa & Bahia, 4-unit (Midtown, Buckhead, Decatur, East Atlanta), $9.4M consolidated AUV, Latin-Caribbean fast-casual with a Brazilian churrasco anchor and Bahian seafood line; the same operator referenced in operations/food-waste-reduction-planner.md Example 4 and _shared/email-drafter.md Example 6
• Audience: Area-GM Maria Restrepo, Owner Carla Bahia, Chef-Partner Renato Brasa, CFO consultant; 2-hour quarterly pricing review (2026-06-01)
• Trigger: World Cup 2026 kickoff 2026-06-11 (10 days from this review); 11-match Atlanta-area schedule overlay anchored on the three Brazilian-team match days; R365 AI Dashboard prime-cost variance attribution at the SKU level via the 2026-05-15 R365 AI ↔ Sysco connector flagging Marfrig AAA picanha input-cost passthrough at +9.4% over the May contract, Sysco produce-program substitute for cilantro at +6%, and a Leblon cachaça allocation cap from the distributor through 2026-09-30
• Sales mix data: 8 weeks of consolidated 4-unit data plus the Buckhead pão de queijo Brazilian-fan pre-test on 2026-05-19 (NRA Show closing day) referenced in the food-waste planner; R365 AI item-master sync completed 2026-05-28 per the email-drafter Example 5 escalation outcome
• Constraints: alcohol-policy hard-block on dynamic pricing for the caipirinha during the World Cup window (TX-equivalent stance adopted as a multi-state policy floor for brand consistency after the Tres Banderas surge visibility); Florida 2026-07-01 service-charge transparency disclosure adopted as the house standard ahead of the FL effective date for cross-state brand consistency; multilingual menu compliance (EN + ES + PT printed cards human-reviewed per the Step 13 convention propagated from sales/menu-description-writer.md v1.3); 4-unit consolidated pricing (no per-unit variance to avoid the dispatch-team complaint Maria handled in Q1)
• Target margins: 28% food cost (4-unit blended); 58% prime cost; CM per cover ≥ $9.40
• Tone: clear, multilingual-aware, no surge-pricing language to the guest

Risk-tier tag: high (4-unit, public-event-window, multilingual, regulatory crosswind). Owner sign-off required on every published price change.

Recap — Brasa & Bahia 4-Unit Pricing Review, 2026-06-01 (owner/area-GM version, ~420 words):

Purpose: Lock the pre-World Cup 2026 pricing posture for the 6-week window (2026-06-11 to 2026-07-19) with surgical passthroughs on the picanha line, a three-tier event surcharge stance, NO alcohol surge on the caipirinha, full multilingual menu compliance, and an R365 AI Dashboard alert threshold at prime-cost variance +1.5 pt as the mid-window re-review trigger.

R365 AI Dashboard prime-cost variance baseline (8-week consolidated, 4 units, SKU-level attribution via the 2026-05-15 Sysco connector):

Tier 1 — Immediate passthrough (effective 2026-06-08, posted on the printed multilingual specials cards in EN + ES + PT at all 4 units):

Tier 2 — Three-tier event surcharge logic (effective 2026-06-11 through 2026-07-19, posted at point-of-order and disclosed on receipts per the Florida 2026-07-01 transparency standard adopted as house policy across all 4 GA units):

Alcohol-policy hard-block (BRAND POLICY, not pricing — but reinforced here):

• Caipirinha price held at $13 across all 4 units for the entire World Cup window. No surge, no allocation-pass-through, no day-part premium.
• Reason: TX-equivalent stance adopted as multi-state floor after Tres Banderas surge visibility (see sales/digital-menu-optimization-brief.md Example 2). Brand reputation in the Brazilian-fan zip codes is worth more than the $1 / drink upside.
• Allocation cap from Leblon (through 2026-09-30) is managed by Sam (bar manager) via portion control: 2 oz pour per drink, no exceptions; if a unit runs out, switch to the back-up Avuá cachaça (Pat the distributor has 6 cases on standby per the 2026-05-28 confirmation).

Tier 3 — Hold steady (no change):

• Pão de queijo basket ($9, Plowhorse — high attach, the operator's identity item)
• Vatapá (Bahian seafood stew, $17, Puzzle — popularity is the lever)
• Coxinha de jaca ($8 vegan app, Star — holding to defend the price-anchor at the lower end)
• Brigadeiro plate ($7 dessert, Dog — slated for re-spec at the 2026-09-01 menu rewrite)

Day-part & event pricing (Brasa & Bahia 4-unit, World Cup window only):

Multilingual menu compliance audit (EN + ES + PT, per Step 13 from sales/menu-description-writer.md v1.3):

R365 AI Dashboard alert thresholds (mid-window re-review triggers):

Impact projection (steady-state, World Cup window 2026-06-11 to 2026-07-19, 4-unit consolidated):

Action items table:

Risks / blockers:

• If Brazil exits in the group stage, the knockout-round +$3 cover-min on the Buckhead/Midtown patio never triggers — the projection drops by ~$1,800 / week for the back half of the window. Sensitivity built into the projection.
• If the Marfrig AAA cost moves above $13.50 / lb landed, the picanha plate at $21 is squeezed; the second passthrough lever is portion (8 oz → 7 oz) before price. Renato has the spec on hand.
• If the Leblon allocation tightens (e.g., distributor cuts the 4-unit quota at any unit), Sam switches to Avuá at that unit only — no menu change, the caipirinha holds at $13.
• Florida 2026-07-01 service-charge transparency disclosure adopted as house standard now means the GA disclosure-line lives on the printed multilingual menu card and the receipt footer — if any unit's printer misfires, the front-of-house workaround is a printed disclosure-line card at the table.

Confidentiality scrub:

• 4-unit consolidated spend data, the specific Sysco DSR contract pricing, the R365 AI license tier, and the Leblon distributor allocation specifics are in the owner-only confidential addendum (Carla Bahia + CFO), not in this brief.

Cross-skill handoffs:

• This pricing review feeds the food-waste-reduction-planner Example 4 4-unit consolidated waste plan (the surge sell-first prioritization on the picanha line aligns with the Tier 1 passthrough)
• The email-drafter Example 6 World Cup catering inquiry template (trilingual PT primary) and Example 5 R365 AI ↔ Sysco onboarding escalation handle the upstream communications
• The meeting-summarizer Example 5 NRA Show 2026 vendor-QBR debrief documents the R365 AI + Crunchtime AI + Leanpath vendor-stack decisions that this pricing review implements
• The world-cup-2026-surge-playbook covers the broader surge-window operational posture this pricing review is a subset of

Notes

• Both examples honor the same config.yml → voice convention (warm-neighborhood + chef-driven for Trattoria Liguria; clear + multilingual-aware for Brasa & Bahia) and the same knowledge-base/terminology/ discipline (Star / Plowhorse / Puzzle / Dog classification; plate cost vs. contribution margin distinction; price anchoring; per-cover contribution as the operator-facing KPI).
• Tier 1 / Tier 2 / Tier 3 structure is the recommended skeleton for any mid-quarter or pre-event pricing review; Tier 1 is what changes within the week, Tier 2 waits for the next print cycle, Tier 3 holds.
• For multi-unit operators, the consolidated 4-unit projection plus per-unit sensitivity bands is the right format — single-unit-level projections invite per-unit price variance which the dispatch teams object to and which fractures the brand.
• The Florida 2026-07-01 service-charge transparency disclosure is adopted across all GA + multi-state units as a house standard ahead of the FL effective date — this is the cross-state regulatory consistency move the next-cycle _shared/state-statute-map.md helper will codify.